ABSTRACT
Objective: To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease. Results: In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95%CI:3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95%CI:4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95%CI:0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95%CI:9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95%CI:21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95%CI:6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95%CI:1.89-10.47) days, respectively. Conclusion: The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Contact Tracing , Cohort Studies , Humans , Incidence , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
Objective: To investigate the mechanism of sovereign medicines in Sanren Decoction on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) through network pharmacology and molecular docking methods. Methods: The main active ingredients of sovereign medicines in Sanren Decoction (Armeniacae Semen Amarum, Amomun kravanh Pierre ex Gagnep, and Coicis Semen) were obtained and screened from by TCMSP and TCMID V2.0, combined with related research. Using UniPort database to query the target proteins corresponding to the active ingredients, then a component-target network was constructed by Cytoscape 3.7.2. PPI network was constructed through the STRING website, and cytoHubba was used to analysis the key subnetworks. CTD database was used to analyze GO and KEGG enrichment of the active ingredient target proteins of Sanren Decoction. Using the active ingredients of sovereign medicines in Sanren Decoction and related chemical drugs such as lopinavir as ligands, molecular docking with the SARS-CoV-2 3CL hydrolase was performed through the CB-Dock website. Results: Sovereign medicines in Sanren Decoction had 39 active ingredients, corresponding to 168 target proteins. The GO enrichment analysis obtained 25 biological processes (BP) items, 14 related items of cell composition (CC), and two molecular function (MF) item, respectively. KEGG enrichment screened 36 signaling pathways such as innate immune system, cytokine signaling in immune system, signaling by interleukins. The molecular docking results suggested that the active ingredients of mairin, ziziphin_qt, and oleanolic acid of sovereign medicines in Sanren Decoction had good binding energy with SARS-CoV-2 3CL hydrolase, and the Vina score of them were similar to those of lopinavir (the 3CLpro inhibitor) and remdesivir (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitor). Conclusion: Sovereign medicines in Sanren Decoction may participate in inflammation-related signaling pathways by regulating inflammatory factors, regulating multiple physiological processes of the disease with multi-components, multi-targets, and multi-pathways. It plays a certain intervention role in the treatment of COVID-19 and its active ingredients have potential resistance to SARS-CoV-2.